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The Federal Reserve closely monitors job openings to understand whether the economy is running too hot. The overall trend of slowing job openings is a sign that rate increases have cooled the economy, according to experts. Job openings, which reached a record of more than 12 million in March 2022, have trended down, as has the job-quitting rate, while separations have been flat. As openings rose slightly in September, the number of openings per unemployed worker was flat, at 1.5, the same as August. Job openings remain much higher than they were before the pandemic, and the number of unemployed workers per job opening is much lower.
Persons: Julia Pollak, , Sarah House, Stephen Juneau, What’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ” Fed, Bank of America, Treasury, Labor Department Locations: Wells Fargo, September’s
The so-called core CPI was also lifted by a 3.7% rise in the cost of lodging away from home, which ended three straight monthly declines. The core CPI gained 4.1% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest rise since September 2021, after advancing 4.3% in August. Over the last three months, the core CPI increased 3.1%. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market tightness, which is driving core services inflation excluding rents, imply that the higher rates could last for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.
Persons: Olu Sonola, Stephen Juneau, Bing Guan, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, Bank of America Securities, Mobil, REUTERS, Fed, Financial, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California
Mike Blake | ReutersIn theory, getting inflation closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target doesn't sound terribly difficult. The main culprits are related to services and shelter costs, with many of the other components showing noticeable signs of easing. watch nowInstead, getting better control of rents, medical care services and the like could take ... well, you might not want to know. Policymakers have been banking on the notion that when existing rental leases expire, they will be renegotiated at lower prices, bringing down shelter inflation. He added that the CPI report "is a reminder that we do not have good historic examples to lean on" for long-term patterns in rent inflation.
Persons: Mike Blake, Steven Blitz, Goldman Sachs, Lisa Sturtevant, Christopher Bruen, Marta Norton, Stephen Juneau, Juneau Organizations: Reuters, GlobalData, Street, Cleveland Fed, Bright MLS, Housing, Americas, Morningstar Wealth, Bank of America Locations: Rancho, San Diego , California, Maryland, Stephen Juneau , U.S
That might not be bad news for the stock market after all. Data compiled by Raymond James shows the S & P 500 has averaged a 3.2% gain during government shutdowns going back to 1995. The most recent one, which took place between late 2018 and early 2019 and lasted 22 trading days, saw the S & P 500 rally more than 10%. In fact, the broad market index has posted gains in every shutdown period tracked by Raymond James. Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau also said, "the economic hit is usually modest," adding that shutdowns "do not impact market functioning."
Persons: Raymond James, shutdowns, Peter Boockvar, Stephen Juneau, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bleakley Financial, Bank of America
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineThe U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in August, but the overall unemployment rate rose. If the unemployment rate goes up, that means the proportion of people looking for a job compared with the total labor force has grown. Investors, too, cheered the jobs report. Major indexes rose in response to the jobs report as well.
Persons: Robyn Beck, Stephen Juneau, , Jeff Cox Organizations: HK MBG, BMW, HK, Afp, Getty, CNBC, Bank of America U.S, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Garden Grove , California, U.S
Forecasters believe that trend continued in August, estimating that the Labor Department’s monthly report on Friday will show the addition of 170,000 jobs. That would be a decrease from the 218,000-job average over the previous three months, and closer to the number needed to employ the approximately 140,000 people who enter the labor force each month. But analysts say the Federal Reserve’s push to cool rapid inflation by ratcheting up borrowing costs — and the impact on hiring — has a ways to go. Immigrants work at higher rates than the American-born population, in which labor force participation is declining as people age into retirement. Already, Americans are feeling the difference: In the Conference Board’s reading of consumer sentiment for August, the share of workers saying jobs were “hard to get” increased sharply, while the share saying jobs were “plentiful” fell.
Persons: , ’ ”, Stephen Juneau, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, “ There’s, we’ve Organizations: Labor, Bank of America Locations: American,
Minneapolis CNN —US companies wary about their economic prospects are battening down the hatches. Recent job market data shows more and more businesses have taken to “labor hoarding” and maintaining headcounts even as demand softens. Employees work at CannaCraft's March and Ash retail cannabis store in San Diego's Mission Valley neighborhood. Grey Duck’s sales picture will become clearer in the next three months, Bossen said. “We’re going to do whatever it takes to keep that staff employed and productive, even if things slow down,” he said.
Persons: , Dana Peterson, ” Peterson, it’s, Ash, Tiffany Devitt, CannaCraft, Ash CannaCraft, , Devitt, Stephen Juneau, they’re, Matt Bigelow, Gusset Jean, Bigelow, ‘ Waddle, Rob Bossen, Grey, Eli Nord, Bossen, “ We’re, waddle Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Conference Board, Conference, Business, CNN, Golden State, of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA Brands, Gusset Jean Co, Vermont, Company Locations: Minneapolis, , headcount, California, Golden, Diego's, CannaCraft, Sonoma County, Juneau, Vermont, Johnson , Vermont, Roseville , Minnesota, China, Roseville
Minneapolis CNN —The number of first-time claims for weekly jobless benefits fell last week to 242,000, down 22,000 from 264,000 the week before, according to data published Thursday by the Department of Labor. Continuing claims, which are filed by people who have received jobless benefits for more than one week, dipped to 1.799 million for the week ended May 6 from a revised 1.807 million the week prior. The outsized influence of Massachusetts’ claims was an anomaly, BofA economists wrote, noting that the state’s total employment accounts for under 3% of overall US employment, and its initial jobless claims are typically under 3% of all weekly US claims. When excluding and recalculating filings in Massachusetts, initial claims have instead moved “sideways,” pointing to limited layoffs, economists Stephen Juneau and Michael Gapen wrote. Weekly jobless claims remain below historical averages: In the decade before the pandemic, weekly claims averaged 311,000.
This expected strength in leisure spending means big business for an industry that was on its knees just three years ago. When the pandemic began, restaurants, bars and hotels were hard hit, shedding more than 8 million jobs in the first few months of 2020. A recent survey from Bank of America showed that 68% of Americans plan to take a vacation this year. Vacationing remained elevated in April with 2.7 million Americans not at work because they were on vacation, the highest level for that month since 2017. Leisure spending is usually first on the chopping block because of its discretionary nature.
Minneapolis CNN —The economy was top of mind for voters in the midterm elections, exit polls showed, adding even more weight to a highly anticipated inflation report due out on Thursday. However, higher energy prices likely pushed up monthly inflation by 0.6%. Additionally, the latest inflation numbers could benefit from the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics tabulates the index. To calculate medical services prices, the agency uses health insurance providers’ retained earnings, or profit margins. Unlike in goods, where inflationary inputs include supply chains and commodity prices, the biggest input into service-providing industries is labor costs.
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